Breast cancer survival prediction using an automated mitosis detection pipeline

Abstract Mitotic count (MC) is the most common measure to assess tumor proliferation in breast cancer patients and is highly predictive of patient outcomes. It is, however, subject to inter- and intraobserver variation and reproducibility challenges that may hamper its clinical utility. In past studies, artificial intelligence (AI)-supported MC has been shown to correlate well with traditional MC on glass slides. Considering the potential of AI to improve reproducibility of MC between pathologists, we undertook the next validation step by evaluating the prognostic value of a fully automatic method to detect and count mitoses on whole slide images using a deep learning model. The model was developed in the context of the Mitosis Domain Generalization Challenge 2021 (MIDOG21) grand challenge and was expanded by a novel automatic area selector method to find the optimal mitotic hotspot and calculate the MC per 2 mm2. We employed this method on a breast cancer cohort with long-term follow-up from the University Medical Centre Utrecht (N = 912) and compared predictive values for overall survival of AI-based MC and light-microscopic MC, previously assessed during routine diagnostics. The MIDOG21 model was prognostically comparable to the original MC from the pathology report in uni- and multivariate survival analysis. In conclusion, a fully automated MC AI algorithm was validated in a large cohort of breast cancer with regard to retained prognostic value compared with traditional light-microscopic MC.